Personal remittances are money sent, particularly from overseas. On average these total slightly less than 1% of the world GDP, but can be much higher for particular countries, e.g.
- El Salvador – 20.4%
- Guatamala – 11.2%
- Honduras – 18.8%
The total for three Northern Triangle Countries have risen to ~$10 billion per year. Much of this is Guatemala
Remittances in Guatemala increased to 1388.60 USD Million in August from 1354.30 USD Million in July of 2021. Remittances in Guatemala averaged 466.16 USD Million from 1990 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 1388.60 USD Million in August of 2021 and a record low of 83.20 USD Million in January of 2002. This…
Also of particular interest is this total is ~20x larger than the amount of aid Trump has threatened to cancel. There is some confusion of exactly what is being cancelled
Experts agree that you can’t address the "root causes" of migration without aid. But Trump’s border temper tantrum prevails.
However, the USAID pages seem to provide pages to explore many of the aid programs. Here again is Guatemala:
The single largest project is a counternarcotics project and $30m and the largest category is in group of “governance”.
So the amount of aid is both large (in sense of $500m) but also small (compared to $10b in remittances). You want these projects to be well-run and successful. However, the extent to which they are cancelled or not well run, influences both the economy and conditions in Northern Triangle Countries.
If they are not well run, then I expect more people to find reasons to leave, and the net result will be more emigrants and hence also more remittances back to the home economy. I think we’re being penny wise and pound foolish here.